Risk & Uncertainty

Topic

• Kris Abdelmessih's reading recommendations on decision making under uncertainty
  He endorses Credic Chin’s blog, Annie Duke, and the books “Decision Traps”, “Winner’s Curse” and “The Laws of Trading”
• Todd Simkin on teaching by judging the decision process, not just the results
  When people discuss decisions that they’ve made, try to shield the person giving feedback from knowing the results
• Todd Simkin on how to calibrate and improve your probabilistic assessments
  Experiment (detachedly) and compare results with what you expected. Note: this works with repeatable, frequent events
• Todd Simkin on overcoming cognitive biases by communicating well with the right kind of group
  Being able to bring in other people to the decision process in a constructive way beats anything else in truth finding